AnalysisPolicySeptember 10, 2026

AI 2027 scenario forecasts superhuman AI impact within a decade

The AI 2027 scenario offers a concrete, quantitative guess at how superhuman AI could unfold, informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, and experience at OpenAI. It includes two endings, a "slowdown" and a "race," and the authors note 2027 was their modal year at publication, with medians somewhat longer.

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