AnalysisPolicySeptember 28, 2026

AI Snake Oil: p(doom) estimates still too unreliable for policy

Read original source →normaltech.ai

AI Snake Oil reposts its deconstruction of p(doom), arguing today's AI existential-risk probability estimates are no more rigorous than those from 2024. The authors say such figures launder vague fears through a facade of quantification and are not the output of a validated model or method.

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