AnalysisBusinessSeptember 24, 2026

AI hyperscalers need 2.7x productivity gain by 2030 to justify $1.1T spend

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Wharton's Jessica Wachter and coauthor Jonathan Wachter estimate Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle must lift productivity 2.7-fold by 2030 after capital costs, depreciation and a 15% return. Their paper warns a failed boom could be "the largest misallocation of capital in history."

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