AnalysisAI ModelsAugust 18, 2026

Traders bet 72% OpenAI's GPT-6 'Astra' launches by Sept. 30

Polymarket traders give a 59% chance of OpenAI's Astra (GPT-6) launching by Sept. 15 and ~72% by month's end, despite OpenAI slowing its release on Aug. 7 over cybersecurity risks. Internal evaluations showed "significant advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity," with OpenAI unable to rule out "Critical" cyber capabilities.

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Traders bet 72% OpenAI's GPT-6 'Astra' launches by Sept. 30