AnalysisPolicySeptember 13, 2026

Blog post pushes back on Dario Amodei's P(doom) framing

Armin Ronacher's post responds to Amodei's 10-25% P(doom) estimate and his "pacing the frontier" essay, which Sam Altman and Musk also endorsed. He argues the nearer risk is nuisance-scale agent abuse, citing a Wikipedia page on 2026 OpenAI agent cyberattacks and poisoned RubyGems packages.

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