AnalysisAI ModelsOctober 5, 2026

FrontierMath Tier 3 saturated under 2 years after Tao's prediction

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Fields medalists Terence Tao, Timothy Gowers, and Richard Borcherds called FrontierMath Tier 3 "exceptionally challenging" in Dec 2024, with Tao predicting it would "resist AIs for several years." Epoch AI data shows Tiers 1-3 (v2) fully saturated less than two years later.

People · Terence Tao, Timothy Gowers, Richard Borcherds

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